campaign signs on Braddock Road, west of Fairfax campus (November 2011)
campaign signs on Braddock Road, west of Fairfax campus (November 2011)
Election is Tuesday, November 8. Deadline to request an absentee ballot is 5:00pm, November 1. Deadline to request an absentee ballot by appearing in-person is 5:00pm, November 5.
In Virginia, absentee voting is allowed but not encouraged by the state. You need to to justify why you can't be at the polls on November 8, in person. If you do not have an acceptable reason to vote absentee, then you might want to double-check your polling place location. Be sure to bring your ID.
In 2016, there are 12 races for Federal office. Virginians will elect 11 members to the US House of Representatives (you get to vote for only one...) plus a new President. Two state constitutional amendments are also on the ballot.
There are also some local elections in 2016. In Manassas, the mayor is running for re-election without opposition - but seven candidates are competing for three seats on City Council, and two candidates are running for the Treasurer office. (Yes, Manassas elects the Treasurer...)
The Republican Party has controlled Manassas government since it became an independent city in 1975. However, the Republicans nominated only two candidates in 2014 for the three open seats. A Democrat served on the Manassas City Council for the last two years, while the other five members were Republicans.
The political landscape is changing in Northern Virginia, and the Democrats have been energized. The population in Manassas is now over 30% Hispanic. No Hispanics have run for office in the city yet, but the Democrats expect to benefit in 2016 from the increased diversity in the electorate.
The Democrats also expect to benefit from the change in the date for local elections. In 2014, Manassas voters agreed to switch the date of its city elections from May to November in even-numbered years. When elections were held in May, the percentage of voters were low. In November, House of Representatives elections will generate increased interest every two years and the presidential races will be on the ballot every four years. The Manassas Democrats engineered the switch in the election dates, from May to November, because they anticipated more Democratic-leaning voters would cast a ballot in November.
We will know after November 8 if higher voter turnout affects the results. A switch in party control may not make a difference, however. The partisan divide that is so clear at the national level is often blurred in local government.
Zoning and land use issues divide members of town councils, city councils, and boards of county supervisors, but the splits often reflect different priorities for managing growth and economic development rather than "red vs. blue" differences. A standard comment at the local level is that there are no Republican or Democratic potholes.
can you identify the boundaries of Manassas vs. Manassas Park?
(In 2016, voters will elect three city council members in each city...)
Source: ESRI, ArcGIS Online
In 2016, there are two elections for seats in the Virginia General Assembly even though it is an even-numbered year. Two House of Delegates seats are vacant; the incumbents resigned before their terms were completed to run for other offices. Whoever wins the seats on November 8 will serve just a 1-year term until the 2017 elections.
Less than 2% of the state's voters (two of the 140 General Assembly districts) will be electing a new member to the state legislature in 2016. Next year will be more interesting, at least if you care about state government. In November 2017, elections will be held for all 100 members in the House of Delegates in the Virginia General Assembly and for numerous county/city/town offices. There will also be a race for governor in 2017.
Normally, none of the 13 Virginians elected to the US Congress (11 to the House of Representatives, 2 to the US Senate) would be on the ballot in 2017. However, if Sen. Tim Kaine is elected vice-president, then Governor Terry McAuliffe will appoint a replacement who will serve until the November, 2017 election. Whoever is elected will serve the one year remaining in Sen. Kaine's term, and Virginians will vote again in 2018 for a US Senator (plus 11 members to the House of Representatives).
Only 5 political offices in Virginia are determined by statewide election. There are 2 US Senate seats, plus three state offices - Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General. All other officials elected in Virginia represent just a portion of the entire state.
The state legislature in Virginia is called the General Assembly. The state legislature has a 10-member House of Delegates (equivalent to the US Congress's House of Representatives) and a 40-member State Senate (equivalent to the US Senate). The legislative branch in state government outnumbers the executive branch, with 140 elected officials to 3 (Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General).
Members of the House of Delegates are elected for two-year terms and members of the State Senate are elected for four-year terms. Those elections occur in odd-numbered years, a pattern the Byrd Organization preferred so voters could support Democrats for state/local offices in odd-numbered years and Republicans for President/US Congress in even-numbered years.
the colonial governor lived in a palace in Williamsburg until recalled by the King of England, but modern governors know they will move out of the Executive Mansion in Richmond after four years
Current Governor Terry McAuliffe will not be a candidate for governor in 2017. Virginia is the only state in the country to prohibit a governor from serving two consecutive terms. The day a Virginia governor is elected, he (so far only men have been elected) becomes a "lame duck."
Virginia's one-term limit applies to serving consecutive terms. Mills Godwin was elected governor twice, in 1965 and again in 1973. Godwin had to sit out for four years after his first term ended in 1969. During that hiatus he switched from the Democratic to the Republican party. In 1973, he was elected as a Republican.
Godwin's switch finally aligned the state Republican Party with the National Republican Party. In 1969, at the national level Richard Nixon had won election as the law-and-order candidate and implemented a successful Southern Strategy to get white southern voters to switch to the Republican Party.
In Virginia, Lynwood Holton was elected the first Republican governor since the Civil War - but in 1969, Republicans in Virginia were still the "liberals" of Abraham Lincoln's party and Democrats were the "conservatives" who had created a system of Jim Crow segregation to limit the economic, social, and political options on non-whites.
In Virginia, the 1973 was the year in which that all changed. Large numbers of conservative Virginians abandoned the Democratic Party and became Republicans like Mills Godwin. The domination of the Byrd Organization and the Democratic Party slipped away in the General Assembly.
In 1999, the Republican Governor Jim Gilmore successfully maneuvered three Democratic members in the House of Delegates to resign. The Republicans won the special elections for those three seats and took control of both houses in the General Assembly.
It took 30 years after the election of the first Republican governor before that party controlled both houses of the legislative branch and the executive branch at the same time. Since then, power has swung back and forth between the two parties, and Virginia is far from its old "museum of democracy" status where the Democratic Party controlled all major decisions.
Virginia voters elected 40 State Senators in 2015. There will be no elections for State Senator in 2017, unless a seat becomes vacant.
The 40 State Senate districts are larger than the 100 House of Delegates districts. All 8,001,024 Virginians counted in the 2010 Census are represented by a State Senator and by a Delegate. Divide 8,001,024 by 100, and you will define the ideal number of people to be represented by a Delegate. Divide by 40 for State Senators, and clearly each State Senator is representing more people and a larger area of Virginia.
Boundaries of election districts are re-drawn after every Census. The process takes time, but the General assembly adopted a new map for elections in time for the 2012 elections. In 2014, a Federal court ruled that the boundary of the 3rd District for US House of Representatives had to be revised, because the district was designed based on race. That revision moved more Democratic-leaning voters into the 4th District, causing Rep. Randy Forbes to run in the 2nd rather than the 4th District. He lost the primary, and will not return as a member of the US House of Representatives in 2017.
a Federal court ruled in 2014 that the 3rd District boundaries were designed to minimize the influence of minority voters, by using race to determine which voters would be placed into one Congressional district
Source: Virginia Division of Legislative Resources, Third District - Congressional
There are more election campaigns for local offices than for state/Federal offices. Virginia has about 3,100 elected officials in the state. Only 143 officials are elected to state office, and only 13 members are elected from Virginia to the US Congress.1
Government by "town meeting," where all voters appear at just one event to make decisions in a public vote, is limited to homeowner associations and other small groups in Virginia - and political caucuses, where Republicans or Democrats gather to nominate their candidates.
In advance of an election, nominees are chosen by political parties through primary elections (where citizens go to polling places across the state and vote to select nominees) or caucuses (where party officials congregate at one location and vote for nominees).
Candidates qualify to get on the ballot by obtaining a minimum number of signatures on a petition. To get on the ballot for president, a candidate must get 10,000 valid signatures from registered voters - including at least 400 from each of the 11 congressional districts.
Failure to follow the rules can force candidates to wage a write-in campaign, which is not a viable strategy except in very small communities. In 2012, Governor Perry of Texas was kept off the Republican primary ballot in Virginia because his campaign failed to get the necessary signatures. In the General Election on November 6, 2012, voters could choose from five candidates representing the Republican Party, Democratic Party, Constitutional Party, Libertarian Party, and Green Party.
Conventional wisdom is that primaries attract independent voters with a middle-of-the-road perspective, while caucuses are dominated by more-liberal Democrats or more-conservative Republicans. In 2013, the Republican Party dropped plans to hold a primary election to a caucus. The change caused the Lieutenant Governor of Virginia, Bill Bolling, to drop out of the race for governor and the Attorney General, Ken Cuccinelli, won the nomination by default.
In 2012, all 11 incumbent members of the House of Representatives (8 Republicans, 3 Democrats) won re-election. In 2014, there was one "open" seat for the US Congress. The incumbent in the 10th District (Frank Wolf) chose to retire, after winning election every two years since 1980. The incumbent US Representatives in the other 10 districts chose to run for another 2-year term, and the incumbent US Senator (Mark Warner) chose to run for a second 6-year term.
In 2016, there are three open seats for House of Representatives. Two incumbents retired. Rep. Randy Forbes was defeated in the primary when he switched from the 4th to the 2nd District, after Federal judges required alteration in the boundaries of the districts.
The race for a US Senate seat in 2012 involved an "open" seat, since Senator Jim Web retired rather than seek a second six-year term. The contest to replace him featured two former governors of Virginia. Tim Kaine (Democrat) had served as governor between 2006-2010, while George Allen (Republican) served 1994-98. Kaine won the 2012 contest, making him the "junior" Senator from Virginia. Sen. Mark Warner is designated the "senior" Senator because he was elected earlier, not because of his age.
after the 2012 election, Virginia had 8 Republicans/3 Democrats serving in the US House of Representatives and 2 Democrats serving in the US Senate - just like after the 2010 election
Source: RealClearPolitics
In 2014, the state senator from the 38th District resigned. A special election was held to fill the position, and the voters chose a Republican to replace the Democrat who had resigned.
That 2014 special election changed the balance of power in the State Senate. There had been 20 Republicans and 20 Democrats, so Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam broke most tie votes. He is a Democrat, but after the election in the 38th District the Republicans had a 21-19 majority. They were then able to block the #1 priority of Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe, to expand "Obamacare" in Virginia.
Virginia does not officially record the political allegiance of voters when they register. You may claim to be a "registered Republican" or "official Democrat" or "card-carrying Libertarian/Green/Independent Green," but those labels come from recognition by political parties or other organizations and not the state of Virginia. Unlike some states, in Virginia the State Board of Elections and the local Electoral Boards do not maintain lists of voters by political affiliation.
However, the lists of people who voted in elections are made public. Your completed ballot is kept secret - but the fact that you registered is public. If you voted, that fact is also public. Who you voted for remains private.
If you vote in a last Republican/Democratic primary, then expect to receive literature and phone calls about future elections from Republican/Democratic candidates. If you participate in a caucus, then you have to identify yourself and promise to vote for that party's nominees. Your participation in a caucus will reveal your political preference for that one nomination decision, but your actual vote in the General Election will be a secret You can break your promise, and no one will ever know.
Republicans were able to win election to the House of Representatives after Reconstruction in Virginia's "Fighting Ninth" Congressional district (in the southwest corner of the state), even though Democrats controlled the state government until the 1969 election for governor
Source: Bureau of Census
Where you vote is determined by where you live, not where you work. When people move, in Virginia they must change their voter registration in order to vote.
Some counties and cities elect some or all of their local politicians "at-large." When voters enter the polling booth in such areas, they can vote for more than one candidate. The top vote-getters in the entire county/city are elected, regardless of the geographic split of the vote within the county/city. The at-large process resembles the way five officials (two US Senators and the Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General) are elected in statewide votes.
Other counties and cities in Virginia have defined magisterial districts or wards from which individual county Board of Supervisors or the City Council members are elected. In such counties and cities, voters can choose only one candidate for their particular district. Such local elections are comparable to the elections for the General Assembly.
There are also hybrid systems. In Fairfax County, the Board of County Supervisors consists on nine members elected from different magisterial districts plus a tenth member elected from all voters in the county as the Chair.
In Prince William County, there are eight members on the Board of County Supervisors. Seven are elected from separate magisterial districts, while one is elected county-wide as the Chair.
Voters across the entire county can vote for the Chair of the Board of Supervisors, and also vote for the supervisor in one magisterial district. The county is divided into seven districts, with the chair being the eighth member of the Board of County Supervisors. Candidates for the county-wide seat of Chair seek support from all voting-age residents across the county. In contrast, candidates for each district restrict their campaigning to less than 20% of the county's population - the ones eligible to vote in their particular magisterial district.
there are seven supervisors elected to the Board of County Supervisors from individual magisterial districts in Prince William County, plus a chair who is elected at-large
Source: Prince William County, Local Election Districts and Precincts Map
The top 5 state officials (two US Senators, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General) are elected "at large," by a majority vote of everyone in the state who chooses to vote. Electing officials "at large" rather than through wards/districts may discourage election of candidates representing minority views, or minority races and ethnic groups within a county/city. For example, the City of Manassas has no wards/districts and 51% of the voters can elect 100% of the officials.
Roanoke debated replacing its at-large elections in 1998, but rejected a proposal to divide the city into 5 wards. The proponents of a ward system suggested electing representatives from separate wards would empower residents from separate neighborhoods, including the poor section of town perceived as under-represented by the current system of city-wide elections. Others pointed to the city's election of a black mayor (Noel Taylor) in 1976 as evidence that a ward system was not needed.
In Richmond, the Federal government forced the city to establish wards, to help ensure the City Council's racial profile reflects the city's racial profile.
In the 1960's, when black residents were nearing a majority of the city residents, there were only one or two blacks elected to the 9-member City Council. Richmond was a highly-segregated city, with the black population concentrated in the neighborhoods east of the Boulevard. Social issues that were priorities for black residents in the city's East End, including public safety, were not adequately addressed while the City Council focused on issues of concern to the business leaders on Main Street.
After passage of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, the Federal government forced Richmond to adopt a ward system. The number of elected officials from the eastern side of town was perceived as insufficient, and the system of electing the top 9 candidates citywide was considered discriminatory. Once the ward system was established after the 1970 census, the majority of individuals elected to City Council were black - reflecting more accurately the racial profile of the city population.
Roanoke holds at-large elections for six members of City Council as well as Mayor, , while Roanoke County elects five supervisors from five separate magisterial districts
Source: ESRI, ArcGIS Online
Many political issues in the capital city are still racially-based, but the power of black and white residents has reversed. With a ward system, now it is the white residents living in the West End who rely upon their local City Council member to ensure their concerns will receive more than token representation.
Richmond is divided into nine wards, and only the mayor is elected at-large
Source: City of Richmond, Geographic Information Systems
after the 2010 Census, boundaries of State Senate districts were redrawn - and the small size of the districts reveals how population is concentrated in Northern Virginia
Source: Commonwealth of Virginia, Division of Legislative Services, Redistricting 2010
House of Delegates districts near GMU Fairfax campus, after 2010 redistricting
Note that the City of Fairfax, outlined in black, is a different political jurisdiction than the County of Fairfax.
If you live in the city, you can vote for members of City Council... but not for the Board of County Supervisors.
However, the state Delegate for the 37th District is elected by voters in the city and a part of the county, including the Fairfax campus.
Source: Virginia Division of Legislative Services
1. Table 2, "Elected Officials of State and Local Governments by State: Census Years 1977 to 1992" in Popularly Elected Officials, Bureau of Census, GC92(1)-2, June 1995, http://www.census.gov/prod/2/gov/gc/gc92_1_2.pdf (last checked October 29, 2012)
2. "Two-party system on the ropes in Virginia races," Washington Post editorial, October 25, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/two-party-system-on-the-ropes-in-virginia-races/2011/10/24/gIQA7wJ6GM_story.html (last checked October 29, 2012)