modern powerlines at Flowerdew Hundred, crossing the
James River at approximate location of early colonial windmill
Virginia is on the cusp of a dramatic shift in energy production and use. Population growth will require more energy, but the sources will shift. The significance of oil for transportation and coal for electricity will drop; natural gas and renewable energy supplies will supply an increasing percentage of demand. The future of nuclear energy, which generates no greenhouse gases and provides reliable, low-cost energy, will depend upon the public's tolerance for the safety risks - and the ability of elected officials to establish a long-term solution for storage of highly radioactive wastes.
Virginia's dependence on imported oil to fuel almost 100% of cars/trucks/trains/ships will be transformed by an inevitable rise in the cost of oil. Prices will rise as the oil industry moves past the peak of production, and as developing economies (especial Brazil, China and India) demand more of the more-scarce resource. A shift to fuel-efficient cars and electric cars over the next 20 years could reduce demand below even current levels, constraining the revenues generated from the gas tax and perhaps triggering a change to a mileage-based fee.
As noted the the 2010 Virginia Energy Plan, 37% of Virginia households use natural gas.1 Natural gas requires a complex pipeline distribution system to move energy from Gulf Coast pipelines, a terminal for imported liquefied natural gas at Cove Point (Maryland), and a few coalbed methane fields in Virginia. Those underground pipelines are gradually aging, with the potential for increased accidents in the future. Gasoline, shipped from the Gulf Coast through pipelines to Virginia, is stockpiled first at a few bulk storage facilities in every urbanized area. From those terminals, gasoline is distributed through tanker trucks to 4,000+ gas stations scattered across the state.2
Nearly 100% of Virginia households uses electricity, and that is unlikely to change. However, the source of that electricity may shift over the next 25 years. Virginia's current reliance on coal will be caught in a political battle over air pollution vs. cheap energy.
Pollution controls on ozone, particulates, and greenhouse gases could increase the cost of coal-generated electricity for Virginia customers. Since the Clean Air Act was amended in 1990, Virginia utilities have delayed replacing old coal-fired power plants built after World War Two. Utilities used a provision in the Clean Air Act to allow for "repairs" at old plants to perpetuate grandfathered levels of air pollution exceeding current standards.
For economic as much as environmental reasons, the inefficient and small coal-fired plants at Possum Point, Bremo Bluff, Alexandria, Glen Lynn, and Chesapeake are finally being converted to different sources of fuel or shut down. Utilities are building new coal-fired power plants, such as the Virginia City Hybrid Energy Center and the proposed Cypress Creek Power Station. The new facilities are located further from urban areas, to cope with air quality attainment standards and to minimize land use conflicts with suburban neighbors.
As a result, the highly-centralized system for producing electricity before distributing it to customers will increase, requiring more transmission lines through undeveloped areas. The current distribution technology will have to get "smart," in order to manage the less-reliable renewable sources - especially wind turbines - and to match demand with supply. Existing grid technology will be upgraded to respond to signals from residential/office/industrial customers, and in some cases to transmit electricity generated by those customers from solar photovoltaic (PV) cells on many decentralized rooftops.
Virginia has no mandatory requirement for utilities to increase their generation of electricity from renewable sources, but there is a voluntary renewable portfolio standard (RPS). The RPS 2025 target is to generate 15% of electricity from renewabla resources. (The California RPS target was 20% by 2010, then raised to 33% by 2020.) In the "fine print," the Virginia target is for investor-owned utilities only - so it excludes electric cooperatives, municipalities, and industrial co-generators. It also excludes 2007 sales attributable to nuclear generation from the calculation, so the target is significantly lower than 15% of "all electricity in 2025.")3
Even if the Federal and state governments commit to renewable resources for generating a significant percentage of energy, the centralized production/decentralized distribution model could continue. Biodiesel plants might replace foreign oil fields, but cars might still fuel up at gas stations. Sources of electricity might become wind farms off the coast of Virginia Beach, or biomass burners (or nuclear plants) that replace coal-fired power plants, but the massive network of powerlines would still be maintained.
On the other hand... distributed production of energy is a possibility. If solar cells become cost-effective for homeowners, and battery-powered cars become common, then sunlight on millions of Virginia house roofs might become the new power plants of Virginia. The installed network of power lines may remain forever, an eyesore providing backup power, but new houses may not choose to connect to the grid. (You can envision the neighborhoods of the future by visiting a community where powerlines are buried underground.)
In this "solar power becomes the prime source of energy" scenario, gas stations - even if they morph into refuling stations offering recharges - may become as rare as phone booths.
Virginia does not support net metering, where all electricity generated at a residence can be sold to a utility. Residential customers with photo-voltaic (PV) solar cells on their roof can offset the cost of their electricity purchases from the utility during a billing cycle, but may not earn a credit for producing more electricity than they use. The inability to get paid for producing surplus electricity may stimulate homeowners with excess capacity to purchase electric cars, so extra electricity generated by solar cells can be used to charge the car rather than just be donated to a utility.