eroded stream after Lake Ridge subdivision was developed in Prince William County
Most Virginia cities are so close to being "built out" that growth management is not a major challenge. In Manassas, for example, only one large parcel remains undeveloped - and it's been known for years that the Smitherwood tract would be developed for housing. Of course, redevelopment of urban sites can still create a political firestorm.
In the last 40 years, growth has inundated some counties that once had large rural areas of low density pasture, farmland, and woodlots. The definition of "Northern Virginia" has shifted to include Fairfax, Prince William, Loudoun, Stafford - and now Spottylvania by some definitions. Fauquier has positioned itself to block sprawl, while other counties have debated the issue but done little to control growth.
Sprawl affects more than just the fast-growing communities. Virginia counties with only minimal population growth need to worry about excessive development, if such growth will degrade air or water quality or force a rise in the general tax rate. Cities with a declining population are also affected by suburban sprawl. Virginia's cities could become the "hole in the doughnut," as population moves to an outer ring of counties away from the urban center. In some cases, urban and suburban activists may combine efforts to steer development back towards the urban core, where public facilities already exist. (The first cartoon in America was Join, or Die, illustrating Benjamin Franklin's call for the colonies to unite in 1754 against the threat of the French in the Ohio Valley. Ultimately, the Quakers had to quit politics in order for the Pennsylvania colony to raise a militia to defend the frontier.)
In theory at least, planning the timing of new homes can be synchronized with the development of new schools, roads, libraries, parks, etc. A Comprehensive Plan and zoning ordinance, plus judicious use of bonds to accelerate development and regulatory hurdles to delay it, could steer where retail shopping centers and even medical facilities are developed.
In practice, the counties have only coarse tools for controlling growth. Virginia has no requirement for payment for the county services that will be required, once the private land is developed. Under Virginia's "Dillon Rule," the counties are also prohibited from establish a local requirement for mandating development be matched with increased services.
Successful lawsuits over downzonings limit the ability of a county to reduce the development of parcels in urbanizing areas, once the acreage has been platted into separate lots. If a 40-acre farm has been subdivided for two decades as a 40-home subdivision but kept in farm use anyway, the landowner pretty much has a right to develop 40 houses at his/her convenience. If the county re-zones the area to a 10-acre minimum lot size, the development potential of the farm is not reduced to 4 houses. A rezoning is not retroactive, once the county has accepted the subdivision of a parcel.
So if sprawl can be limited only marginally, will it ever come to an end in Northern Virginia? And what will the region look like, then?