Obviously there is no guarantee than any of the speculations below will come true. Still, one application of your understanding of Virginia geography is to predict the future. If you are presenting a business plan to a venture capitalist or banker, or talking to a neighborhood group about to lose its local playing field to a road realignment, or just a voter interested in what candidate to support, it makes sense to project from the present into the future before making your decision. Your understanding of regional history, economic geography, transportation patterns, population trends, etc. can be used in making real-world decisions long after you've taken your last geography test in school...

How Will Northern Virginia Schools Change?

Unless you happen to have a crystal ball for fortune-telling, it is possible only to speculate. But based on an understanding of some patterns in the region, it is a good bet that the private sector should supply an increasing percentage of funding for school development and operations.

If that actually happens, then savvy school administrators will spend more time with donors who made their fortunes in computer services companies. If you follow the trend line, the skills in building connections to businesses for obtaining school funding will grow more essential for public school officials - while bureaucratic skills in obtaining funds from the state will become somewhat less valuable over time. Not all officials will be able to make the shift - watch the turnover of school superintendents and university officials in the first years of the next decade, and you can see which systems will get a head start on matching their product (students with skills) to the priorities of the new employers in Northern Virginia.

As the software and Internet services industry grows in Northern Virginia over the next two decades, schools that successfully tap that donor base are likely to grow and expand. This process is already underway, and some initial results on the competition are beginning to become clear.

The University of Virginia and Virginia Tech have established "centers" in Fairfax County, but failed to expand them substantially in the 1990's. Because both schools already have substantial endowments, raised in part through strong alumni associations with many graduates from the Northern Virginia region, they can afford having just a limited physical presence in Northern Virginia. They explored the possibilities via their connections with Center for Innovative Technology (CIT) started by Governor Robb. However, the CIT had minimal impact on the development of the computer services industry in the state, and was not championed by the three governors in the 1990's - Wilder, Allen, and Gilmore.

One non-state school, George Washington University, sought to connect with Northern Virginia's growth. George Washington University opened a campus on Route 7 and started a telecommunications program. Think it was a matter of chance (or geography...) that the international studies program stayed on the campus near the State Department, while the courses taught at the Loudoun County campus matched the growth industry of the region?

The story of George Mason University (GMU) offers some potential insights into the "end game"of Northern Virginia development. By opening a campus in Prince William County and expanding the campus in Arlington in the 1990's, GMU locked up the market for publicly-funded higher education in Northern Virginia. GMU's growth effectively precluded other state-sponsored universities from erecting new facilities, even though the GMU curriculum is limited, especially at the graduate level. Northern Virginia remains an under-served, fast-growing region of the state while George Mason expands to meet the demand.

[Ironically, George Mason was a college of the University of Virginia from its founding after World War II until 1974.]

GMU has already shown how an alert school administration can adapt to changing economic circumstances. GMU received strong support from Til Hazel and others in the real estate industry in the 1980's and 1990's. As real estate profits waned (mirrored by the rise and fall of Regardies magazine), George Mason reached out to attract attention in the software business by hosting the World Congress on Information Technology in 1998.

GMU has also demonstrate a nimble ability to connect with political trends in Virginia, as well as economic patterns in its region of the state. Governor Wilder was forced to cut the state budget during the recession in his term. In choosing between "niceties vs. necessities," he slashed funding for the universities - but allowed dramatic tuition increases to make up for the state's funding cutbacks.

The Republican ascendancy to political power in Virginia during the 1990's allowed the two Republican governors in the 1990's to appoint a majority of the Board of Visitors to Virginia colleges. To their frustration, however, the entrenched educational bureaucracy, especially tenured professors who had been appointed over the last 35 years, left the Republicans in power with just one choice for shaping the content and orientation of education at a major Virginia university - GMU. Control of the General Assembly will shift between the two major parties in the 21st Century, but GMU has the potential for significant growth in the coming decades...

During the last decade, an uneasy alliance evolved between GMU and the administrations of George Allen and Jim Gilmore. Neither governor was able to exert tight control over the university, in part because of the Virginia tradition to avoid overt politicization of state-supported schools and in part because of the influence of Til Hazel and the personal connections of the school president, George Johnson. But under Johnson and his successor, GMU positioned itself effectively to receive increased state and private sector support that reflects the priorities of the emerging economic and political powers.

The growth spurt of Northern Virginia and GMU have occurred at roughly the same time as the Republican Party has become the dominant political party in Virginia. In 10-20 years, this may help you answer the question if someone asks "Do the economics and government classes taught at Mason have a different twist than classes at other Virginia colleges?"


What Comes After Sprawl?
Evolution of Northern Virginia
Virginia Places