Eastern Shore

The Eastern Shore of Virginia is, geologically, the most recent part of the state to form. It is located between the Atlantic Ocean and the Chesapeake Bay, and evolved in the last 20,000 years. As glaciers melted and sea level rose, the Susquehanna River deposited sand and silt from Pennsylvania and New York. Ocean currents carried sediments from the Hudson River and Delaware River south, extending Eastern Shore to its current dimensions about 3,000 years ago.1 If sea level rises as predicted, the barrier islands and marshes on the eastern edge will migrate westward - but Tangier (a town in Accomack County) and other islands in the Chesapeake Bay could disappear entirely underwater.2 Physically, the Eastern Shore is a peninsula between the Chesapeake Bay and the Atlantic Ocean. Route 13 marks a rough approximation of the watershed divide - land on the "bayside" of the peninsula drains to the Chesapeake, while land on the "seaside" drains to the Atlantic Ocean (and is not part of the Chesapake Bay watershed). Politically, the Eastern Shore consists of two counties - Accomack and Northampton. They are rural areas, despite having been settled continuously by Europeans longer than nearly any other area in North America - and poor. After 400 years of potential economic growth, Census data shows that Accomack and Northampton counties have some of the lowest median household incomes in the state. To incentivize companies to locate on the Eastern Shore, it was designated as an Enterprise Zone in the 1990's. Accomack and Northampton counties relied upon agriculture for 400 years, but now are encouraging tourism and second home development. It's economic situation was decribed by the Virginia Economic Development Partnership in 2001:3 The Shore boasts a world-class coastal ecosystem, the last undeveloped coastal wilderness on the Eastern Seaboard, extraordinarily productive waters and farm land, and a tightly knit community distinguished by its unique towns and villages. These assets - lost to so many other coastal places - are still intact because Shore residents are determined to protect their natural, cultural and historic resources as they seek to strengthen their rural economy. But the Shore also suffers from a high poverty rate, low median income and widespread substandard housing, brought on in the past two decades by the collapse of the farm and seafood industries. Despite the economic stress, Northampton County rejected proposals in the 1990's for a new state prison and for a facility to treat contaminated soil shipped in from northern states. Instead, the Eastern Shore has identified six economic priorities: agriculture, seafood/aquaculture, heritage tourism, arts/crafts/local products, research/education and new industry. "New industry" has a unique focus. The Cape Charles Sustainable Technologies Industrial Park, an ambitious plan for an eco-industrial park, was launched in the mid-1990's. However, so far the sustainable development industrial park has failed to attract and retain tenants.

Eastern Shore peninsula: two counties Source: Virginia Department of Mines, Minerals and Energy

Eastern Shore watersheds - bayside and seaside Source: US Geological Survey National Atlas

Modern industries are reluctant to build manufacturing facilities on the Eastern Shore, because transportation to market is slow and costly. Access to markets via road and rail transportation matters; manufacturing is limited, and the Eastern Shore ships mostly seafood and farm products. Recreational and small commercial fishing boats dominate the marinas. There is no deep water port, though reconstructions of tall ships from the colonial era can sail into Cape Charles harbor for tourism festivals.

Accomack County is twice the size of Northampton, and closer to Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New York. The 2010 Census recorded 33,164 residents in Accomack County, compared to only 12,389 for Northampton County. (For comparison, in the 1900 Census Accomack had 32,570 residents and Northampton had 13,770 people. A century earlier in 1800, Accomack had 15,693 residents and Northampton had 6,763.)⁴ In 2011, the health commissioner of Virginia approved relocating the only hospital on the Eastern Shore from Northampton to Accomack, to be closer to the center of population.⁵

As the song goes, "the times they are a-changing." Wallops Island, in the northeast corner of Accomack County next to Chincoteague, is the site of the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport, and is expanding beyond research flights. NASA has funded eight re-supply missions from Wallops to the International Space Station between 2012 and 2021.

Wallops Island Research Range
Source: NASA

Watch Northampton County in particular. The land rush around Cape Charles has started; urbanization is close behind. The Chesapeake Bay Bridge-Tunnel has charged one of the highest tolls in the nation, in order to repay construction bonds. That cost deterred commuters from living in Northampton County and working in Hampton Roads. Tunnel managers changed the pricing in 2001 so a return trip within 24 hours was just $4, for a total toll of $14 roundtrip (rather than $10 each way, with no discount). That change created a 30% discount for commuters going back and forth between Virginia Beach and Northampton County. (Prices were raised in 2004 to $12 one-way, $17 roundtrip.)⁶

Virginia Beach developers have already built golf courses and housing developments in Northampton County, such as Bay Creek at Cape Charles. Landowners and developers planning to convert Eastern Shore agricultural land into new subdivisions will continue to advocate a reduced fare across the bridge-tunnel. With a faster, cheaper commute, Northampton County could experience the same sprawl as Loudoun, Stafford, Fluvanna, Hanover, and Gloucester counties in the last decade. The Chesapeake Bay Bridge-Tunnel is being expanded in stages. Parallel bridge spans providing 4-lane capacity are in use, but the two tunnels remain as 2-lane bottlenecks. Bonds for the construction of the parallel spans will be paid off in about 2020, freeing up capital for new construction. The Commonwealth of Virginia has provided no construction money to the Chesapeake Bay Bridge-Tunnel; money was borrowed through bond sales and repaid through tolls.

Possible expansion includes 4-laning the north tunnel across the Chesapeake Channel and constructing a new 4-lane tunnel buried deeper under the Thimble Shoal Channel (so coal exports from Norfolk could use bigger ships). If funded through tolls, customers who buy new houses on the Eastern Shore and commute to Virginia Beach/Norfolk (plus existing users) would finance the proposed tunnel expansion. If projected toll increases are unacceptable, however, bridge-tunnel and state/county officials may become more creative and craft a fee/tax on new development in Northampton County. Such an arrangement could spread the pain so the builders/landowners who profit from new construction on the Eastern Shore would also pay for transportation improvements - in addition to any new Northampton County residents who buy new houses and commute to Virginia Beach/Norfolk. Land prices on the Eastern Shore remain low compared to Hampton Roads, but any Northampton boom could be constrained by inadequate supplies of fresh drinking water - even if commuter transportation to Hampton Roads becomes "cheap." As documented by the US Geological Survey, "Ground water is the sole freshwater supply for the Eastern Shore Peninsula in Virginia. The fresh ground-water-flow system consists of a water-table aquifer underlain by three confined aquifers separated by intervening confining units."7 Virginia designated Accomack/Northampton counties as the Eastern Shore Ground Water Management Area in 1976,8 and the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality must issue a permit for any project that plans to withdraw 300,000 gallons per month. One long-range possibility that could transform the Eastern Shore: energy development. Wind energy could be developed first in the Chesapeake Bay, where the costs for building transmission lines would be far less than hypothetical sites in the Atlantic Ocean. Any large-scale wind farms along the Atlantic Flyway will face environmental restrictions, to protect migrating birds and bats. The oil and gas potential of the Outer Continental Shelf is unknown, but Jurassic-age rocks in the Baltimore Canyon Trough are a particular target for future development. In 2008, the Obama Administration planned Mid-Atlantic Oil and Gas Lease Sale 220 - but cancelled the sale after the Deepwater Horizon spill in the Gulf of Mexico. While Governor McDonnell continued to propose making Virginia the “Energy Capital of the East Coast,” no state leases have been proposed for oil and gas drilling within state waters. Instead, the focus is on drilling offshore in areas 50 miles or more east of the Atlantic shoreline of Virginia. If offshore areas along the Atlantic Coast turn out to be as rich in hydrocarbons as the Gulf Coast, an oil port comparable to Morgan City, Louisiana will be needed to support such development. The most likely candidate in Virginia is Cape Charles, at the southern tip of Northampton County.

note contrast between Atlantic Ocean/Chesapeake Bay sides of Eastern Shore Source: NASA

OCS Lease Sale 220 - as originally planned by Obama Administration
Source: Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, Virginia Lease Sale 220 Information

References 1. "Bay Geology," Chesapeake Bay Program, http://www.chesapeakebay.net/baygeology.aspx?menuitem=14604 (last checked August 12, 2011) 2. "The Chesapeake Bay: Geologic Product of Rising Sea Level," U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 102-98, http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs102-98/ (last checked August 10, 2011) 3. "Compatible Economic Development: Virginia's Eastern Shore" in Crossroads: Addressing Conservation Issues in the Economic Development Process in Virginia, Virginia Economic Development Partnership, 2001 http://www.meganincva.com/pdfs/Crossroads-VEDP-communityrelationsworkbook.pdf (last checked August 10, 2011) 4. "State & County QuickFacts," Bureau of Census, http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/51/51131.html; Historical Census Browser, University of Virginia Library, http://mapserver.lib.virginia.edu/ (last checked August 12, 2011) 5. "State OKs relocating Eastern Shore's only hospital," The Virginian-Pilot, August 11, 2011 http://hamptonroads.com/2011/08/state-oks-relocating-eastern-shores-only-hospital (last checked August 12, 2011) 6. "Chesapeake Bay Bridge-Tunnel," Roads to the Future, Chesapeake Bay Bridge-Tunnel (last checked August 10, 2011) 7. "Hydrogeology and analysis of the ground-water-flow system of the eastern shore, Virginia," U.S. Geological Survey, Water Supply Paper 2401, 1994, http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/wsp2401 (last checked August 10, 2011) 8. "Columbia and Yorktown - Eastover Multi-aquifer System - Accomack and North Hampton Counties," Environmental Protectiion Agency (EPA), http://www.epa.gov/reg3wapd/drinking/ssa/columbiayorktown.htm (last checked August 10, 2011) Links Accomack County Accomack-Northampton Planning District Commission Eastern Shore of Virginia Groundwater Committee Eastern Shore Ground Water Supply Protection and Management Plan (1992) Eastern Shore of Virginia Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (June 2011) Center for Conservation Biology - Wind and Waterbirds - establishing sustainable mortality limits within the Atlantic Flyway (2010) Chesapeake Bay Bridge-Tunnel Chesapeake Bay Bridge-Tunnel Commission Citizens for a Better Eastern Shore Eastern Shore & More Northampton County Shore Daily News Shoreline Evolution - Chesapeake Bay Shoreline, Northampton County, Virginia "Southern Spaces" journal - The Countryside Transformed: The Eastern Shore of Virginia, the Pennsylvania Railroad, and the Creation of a Modern Landscape Virginia Eastern Shorekeeper

Eastern Shore, Delmarva (DElaware, MAryland, VirginiA) Peninsula, and Chesapeake Bay Source: NASA